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Web 2.0 Is Dead and Web 3.0 Is Five Years Away
New Media, Virtualization and Cloud Computing Will Flourish During this Recession
By: Fuat Kircaali
Oct. 2, 2008 09:30 AM
Do you remember our Y2K problem eight years ago? On January 1, 2000, all of a sudden, there was no Y2K problem. For many years every software company collectively made billions of dollars on Y2K projects. Y2K became an industry inside the software industry. I recall meeting a computer consultant who claimed to be fixing the Y2K problem on QuickBooks on a local PC used by a local mom and pop shop, a "hire a nurse" small business.
Unfortunately Web 2.0 was not so lucky.
Forget about the IBMs, Microsofts, Oracles of the industry for a moment that forayed into the Web 2.0 craze simply because of the buzz that started a couple of years ago. For the rest of the software vendors and the VC-based start-ups who bet their entire business on Web 2.0, the season is unfortunately over for now.
The new game is played a little differently now in the brave new World. IT departments around the world, small or large, have new priorities on their plate:
I can't imagine a single company having a spare team of programmers sitting bored in a room today, with nothing better to do than implementing a "social computing" module to their corporate website, or my favorite, "enterprise mashups" for their management team.
Web 2.0 became a mute subject overnight as it relates to the "software business," almost like Y2K but for different reasons.
When you think about it, the entire Web 2.0 concept was a "no concept" to start with. We are not talking about "a new technology," we are not talking about "a new platform" or a "solution" to a business problem.
Bloggers do not need hundreds of Web 2.0 software companies to help them, neither did the kids who started MySpace, YouTube, or Facebook. As a matter of fact, not a single Website whose name is mentioned alongside the term Web 2.0 ever used any technology from a single Web 2.0 software vendor. We certainly didn't as we built Ulitzer.
Whose Web 2.0 software platform is the guy who launched Digg using? No one's. Why would K-Mart need social computing features on their website? Why would IBM need social computing elements on its website? Why would Sony need an enterprise mashup? Well, Zillow is a hit. Do we need to change every website on earth to mini Zillows?
As I said, companies, like the families and individuals of our times, are in survival mode now. They have a task at hand to cut costs, improve efficiencies, and survive the next five years.
K-Mart's IT department is trying to find a way to load those trucks more efficiently and the last thing people in Armonk are thinking about is when to launch IBM's very own corporate Web 2.0 site.
As far as the software industry goes, these tough economic days give the biggest business advantage to those companies who contribute directly to the solution of the big global problem and they will be the first to flourish as we dig ourselves from the ditch. Call that the new Y2K problem of our times, and it won't go away on a predetermined date, as the clocks hit midnight.
And on top of this list comes three recession curing technologies: SOA, Virtualization, and Cloud Computing.
Now, let's get back to work folks.
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